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Paul, the Octopus that Predicts the World Cup's Results

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That poor octopus #w{:<}

So... Some people out there want to kill this octopus, because it predicted against the team they wanted to win in the world cup. some people take sports way to seriously. It's a frickin' octopus for gods sake ;-; Thats like saying "Oh hai that penguin can predict the future.. oh man we gotta purge it now, guys."
Holy shit, that octopus was right.
From #serioushax, 6 hours ago:

okt 26 15:07:04 <Roy> haha
okt 26 15:07:07 <Roy> Paul the Octopus died
okt 26 15:07:12 <Gold> mahaha
okt 26 15:07:15 <Roy> good. now nothing stands in the way for Holland to win EC 2012
okt 26 15:07:18 <Roy> well maybe Germany
okt 26 15:07:19 <Roy> BUT NOT SPAIN
--------> Don't follow "Find Roy's Dignity", my hack. Because it's pretty outdated. <--------
What did an octopus know about soccer (football)?

  1. Once upon a time, there was a stock analyst who knew nothing about stocks. She acquired a list of 4000 addresses. She sent 4000 mails with a prediction about the stock of Apple, the company that makes iMacs and iPhones. The first 2000 mails predicted that Apple stock would go up. The other 2000 mails predicted that Apple stock would go down.
  2. Then Apple stock went up. So 2000 addresses got a correct prediction. One month later, this stock analyst sent 2000 more mails, to the 2000 addresses that got the correct prediction. The first 1000 mails predicted that Apple stock would again go up. The other 1000 mails predicted that Apple stock would go down.
  3. Then Apple stock went up. So 1000 addresses got two correct predictions. Another month later, this stock analyst sent 1000 more mails, to the 1000 addresses that got both correct predictions. The first 500 mails predicted that Apple stock would go up. The other 500 mails predicted that Apple stock would go down.
  4. Then Apple stock went down. So 500 addresses got three correct predictions. Now there are 500 potential clients, ready to buy advice from this stock analyst, because she made three correct predictions. Yet this stock analyst knows nothing about stocks, and only makes random guesses.


This story about the stock analyst is not exactly true, but it does resemble the market for mutual funds which invest money in the stock market. All such funds make guesses about the stock market. There are always a few lucky funds, which earn more money, and lure more investors, using only luck.

Everyone knows how Paul the octopus predicted the World Cup. Paul knew nothing about soccer (football). He did not know that teams can score by shooting the ball into the goal. He did not know that a red card can eject a player from the game. He did not know that only goalkeepers can handle the ball. He did not know that the field is green, or that the ball is round. Paul only knew how to eat.

Paul, unlike the stock analyst, did not send different guesses. Instead, Paul had about a hundred other rivals also trying to guess the World Cup. Wrong guesses eliminated all but Paul and one other animal. Paul chose Spain. The other animal chose the Netherlands. Paul became famous, and I already forgot the name of the other animal.

Now that Paul is dead, the world will want a successor for the next tournament. We only need about 20 octopuses. If the bracket starts with 16 teams, then we can expect about 1 or 2 octopuses to correctly predict the first game, the quarterfinal, the semifinal and the final.

Hacking Super Mario World since 28 February 2009
SMWDISC
Paul the Octopus may have "predicted" the World Cup's Results but it could not predict it's own death.

Originally posted by swayingmadness
I swear some people take sports way to seriously.


Some would even go as far as to declare war if necessary. And no, that's not an exaggeration. <_<
poor Paul may you rest in peace #w{:<}
Yeah, I remember seeing this on the news. I think the octopus was only 2?
How sad, may he Rest in Peace...
Originally posted by O Shizl Gzngahr
Yeah, I remember seeing this on the news. I think the octopus was only 2?


They don't get much older, really. His follow-up can only be expected to predict EC 2012 and not WC 2014, either. Unless they pick his follow-up in early 2012, of course.
--------> Don't follow "Find Roy's Dignity", my hack. Because it's pretty outdated. <--------
Originally posted by The Offender
Originally posted by O Shizl Gzngahr
Yeah, I remember seeing this on the news. I think the octopus was only 2?


They don't get much older, really. His follow-up can only be expected to predict EC 2012 and not WC 2014, either. Unless they pick his follow-up in early 2012, of course.

Yes, the adverage age of an octopus is just 2-3 years.
I forgot to see this thread. He was 2 years and a half already when he started predicting, if I remember correctly. Hope he rest in peace.
Now I need to change my old avatar. Or not.
Actually I'm fairly sure he started "predicting" in 2008 already. That was the year in which he was born. I hadn't ever heard of said octopus back then, though.
--------> Don't follow "Find Roy's Dignity", my hack. Because it's pretty outdated. <--------
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